Manmohan's temptation to do a Vajpayee—is it worth it? | Girish Nikam

Published on 25-11-2008 In General

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Manmohan's temptation to do a Vajpayee—is it worth it?

In the year 2003, around the same time when elections to the five states, where it is underway now, was on, all the talk centred around the impact of those elections on the Lok Sabha and its longevity. When the results came out in favour of the BJP, which managed to wrest, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and surprisingly Rajasthan too from the Congress, the sense of euphoria in the BJP-NDA camp was overpowering.

Though the term of then Lok Sabha and the BJP-led NDA Government was to end only in October, 2003, the prospect of riding on the "wave" of the Assembly victories was just too much to resist, for the BJP leadership. With the result, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee reportedly despite his own gut feelings, went ahead and dissolved the Parliament nearly nine months ahead of schedule. The result of that hasty and rather miscalculated decision is well known. In fact two then Chief Ministers, S.M.Krishna of Karnataka and Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh, who also followed Vajpayee and dissolved their Assemblies, to coincide their elections with the Lok Sabha, also met the same fate as Vajpayee.

Ironically the UPA Government now is poised in a similar situation. Though it is too risky now to predict the outcome of this round of Assembly elections which are on, it won't be surprising if Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi face similar pressures, as Vajpayee did in the winter of 2003, after the results are out next month.

With six States, including, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh (all with BJP now), Delhi (With Cong), Jammu and Kashmir (was with Cong-PDP), and Mizoram (with MNF), poised to elect new Governments, even if three of them goes to Congress and its allies, the pressure will be on. There are several compelling factors now, both in favour as well as against, for Manmohan Singh to commit the same mistake as his predecessor.

One of the most compelling but confusing scenario faced by Manmohan Singh is the drastic situation faced on the economic front. Vajpayee faced no such situation. For the Congress leadership the biggest test will be to analyse whether the situation could improve if they wait till the scheduled time, which will be April-May, or would it worsen by then.

Going by the global scenario of doom and gloom on the economic front, no one is certain about whether things would improve. But there is a hope--- that sentiments could change once the US has a new President in place, and he starts putting in place, hopefully a programme which could renew confidence in its economy. But then again it is a gamble. What is worrisome for Manmohan Singh as well is that what happens till Jan.20, when Barack Obama takes his destined place in the White House. The way the financial institutions are tumbling, he may just have a very hot potato on his hand, when he takes over and nothing much may change for a year if not more after that.

The way jobs are being cut and salaries are being slashed in US, it is just a matter of time the full impact of it starts being felt here in India too. Already the stock markets have been so badly battered, that they refuse to rise, despite a couple of promising recoveries, which only flattered to deceive.

However, there are some predictions that India may after all escape the full wrath of this worst ever depression in a century or more. If that is so, and Manmohan Singh believes it too, there is no reason to press the panic button and do a Vajpayee, soon after the Assembly results are out. It may just give him and his team the respite needed to pull the economy out of the doldrums, and who knows that may itself become the most compelling election pitch.

One more reason, why Manmohan Singh may just decide to hang on till the scheduled time, is the opportunity he and his team would get to put in place another budget, which can encompass their ideas to pull the economy out of its present morass. It is also possible that by then a good Rabi crop can help make the economy look a little more robust.

Of course, the conventional wisdom as far as elections are concerned, which has taken a beating for some years now, is another compelling reason to carry on for the full term, instead of cutting it short. It has been proved time and again in the last over a decade or more that India votes differently, when it comes to Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. A fact proved in 2003-04 much to the chagrin of the BJP and its allies.

The euphoria of the Assembly election victories don't last and certainly don't get carried on to the general elections. People have grown wiser, and are able to differentiate between the issues facing them in a State election and national elections. This is a point which many politicians hammer home in private always, but somehow seem to forget when they have to take the tough decision.

As far as the present round of Assembly elections are concerned, it is the Chief Ministers of the States, except in Jammu and Kashmir possibly, who are under test. All of them, Sheila Dikshit(Delhi), Vasundhra Raje Scindia(Rajasthan), Shivraj Singh Chauhan(Madhya Pradesh) and Raman Singh(Chattisgarh) are fighting their own battles to prove themselves. In such a scenario the people of these States are bound to think in a different manner, when they go in to press the button on the Voting Machines.

To confuse the verdict for or against them, as a verdict in favour or against the parties they represent, at the national level, would be a grievous mistake, for the parties in question. It is therefore no wonder that reports from the field from these States, indicates clearly that national issues like terrorism, hindutva or Islamic, are having little bearing on the thinking patterns, and possibly on the voting patterns too. It is still the bread and butter issues like roads, power, water, employment, which are capturing the imagination of the people.

Manmohan Singh would therefore be best served if he sits back, stop getting pressurized to do a Vajpayee, and think of how best to utilise the remaining six months he has on hand to tackle the massive challenges of the economy. Sonia and Manmohan would do a favour to themselves and the country, if they put an end to these speculations firmly as soon as the Assembly elections end, and get on with the task of governance, which they legitimately are entitled to, till May 2009.

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