When the elections to the Karnataka legislative Assembly was announced by the Election Commission in April, under the newly delimited constituencies, there was some hope that the verdict would be a decisive one. However when the final nominations to the 224 seats were finalised, the hope continued to flicker.

The feeling however started to change and a sense of uncertainty took over through the first phase of the campaigning and polling too. Now with all the three phases of polling over and 48 hours to go for the results to be declared, the question which continues to dog everyone following the polling is, will we see a repeat of 2004? Or has the electorate of Karnataka decided to put an end to hung assemblies and thereby end the concomitant manipulations, bickerings and machinations which they witnessed for 40 months, before the premature dissolution of the Assembly late last year?With different exit polls suggesting different results the tension is building up as the outcome seems uncertain.

The BJP which cleverly put together a strategy by appealing to the Karnataka electorate to "give us also a chance", continues to be apprehensive about making it past the magic number of 113 to be able to form the government on its own. Party insiders fear that even if they fall short by 15 to 20 seats, they may be unable to form the Government, considering the anti-pathy generated with the Janata Dal(S).

Moreover, its supremo L.K.Advani who formulated the strategy however also went a step further during the campaign and publicly pledged that his party will not have an alliance with other parties, especially the Janata Dal(S), and would rather sit in opposition, if they don't get a clear mandate. Brave words, though tactically a clever move, aimed at moving the voters to vote decisively for them. However, how far Advani would be able to keep the pledge, in case of his party falling short is worth watching, especially since he would be faced with enormous pressure, to give up the pledge.
Meanwhile, the Congress leadership has almost given up hope of forming a Government on its own. Its hopes now rest on BJP falling short of the majority, and it emerging with enough seats to strike a deal with Janata Dal(S). In fact this thought was always at the back of the mind of many leaders, especially the Chief Ministerial aspirants, throughout the campaign, which also may have had its impact on the voters.
On the other hand, the Janata Dal(S) is gloating over the numbers which the exit polls are showing it would get. It would mean that the feeling at the beginning of the campaign that it would be virtually wiped out, has not come true. It is now readying itself to play the role of the kingmaker, if not the king itself.
But have the Karnataka voters really created another 2004 in the sealed ballot boxes? The exit polls say so. However there are certain clues which give different indications. For one the high percentage of voting. Though early indications in both the first and second phase of polling indicated that it was around 60 percent final figures show that it has gone up to 66 and 67.8 percent respectively.

In the first phase if Bangalore city and rural are kept out, as they had dismal levels of voting, the average goes up to 72.

If people go out to vote in such huge numbers what is the indication? Does it mean that they are still confused or they are determined to do something which is in their mind? As far as voters' mood is concerned, it was pretty evident that they don't want to see another round of alliance governments. So have they voted for Congress heavily or is it the BJP? Or is it the Janata Dal(S) as its leaders fondly hope.
Travelling through the State for three weeks, one clear impression one got was that there was no positive vote in favor of any party. If there was anything remotely resembling it, it was this strong almost across-the-State feeling that BJP should also be tried once. It was visible across the regions from South Karnataka to coastal belt, Malnad as well as the dry Hyderabad-Karnataka as well as Bombay-Karnatak regions. While Congress certainly did figure in the minds of the people, it was certainly not with the kind of feeling that, it was the best alternative like one saw in both 1989 and 1999.

Another feature noted this time was unlike in 2004, there are lesser triangular fights and more straight fights between the Congress and the BJP. In 2004, out of the 82 straight fights between Congress and BJP, the BJP had won in 49 sets while Congress managed only in 26. However in the 73 triangular fights between the Congress-BJP-Janata Dal(S), JD(S) had emerged winners in 36, while BJP and Congress got only 20 and 17 respectively. If past trends are any indication and considering the general mood of the people has the BJP appeal to give them a chance forced voters out of their homes to go out and vote?While this still is in the realm of speculation and analysis, there is another significant piece of statistics, which can give an indication about whether the voters have gone in for a decisive mandate or a hung assembly.

The clue is in the voting percentages in the elections held in 1983 and 2004, which was 65.67 and 65.17 percent respectively. While in the elections held in 1985 it was 67.25 percent, in 1989 it was 67.5, in1994 it was 68.59 and in 1999 it was 67.65. The difference between the 1983 and 2004 figures and the rest was that in the earlier two elections the verdict were hung assembly. The two to five percent increase in voting percentages on the other hand meant a clear verdict in favour of either the Congress or the Janata Dal in the remaining elections.
Going by the voting figures received so far, this election also seems to be heading for a higher percentage of voting than in 2004 and 1983. The key therefore seems to be in the voting percentages.

However, even in case of higher percentages returning a hung verdict, there is some work in store for the psephologists as well as analysts about the changing voting pattern. Yet they may just be spared of that task, when the ballot boxes open in the next 36 hours. If not all eyes will be on that maker and breaker of governments par excellence, from Haradanahalli!