Nuclear Deal--- Why this anxiety? | Girish Nikam

Published on 10-03-2008 In National

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Nuclear Deal--- Why this anxiety?

The nuclear deal debate has once again started taking centre stage, and an atmosphere of uncertainty about the continuation of the UPA Government, has been created. The media-generated hype about possible early elections, which started with Chidambaram's budget, is now reaching a peak. The same questions which were raised before the Indo-US nuclear deal was taken to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), are now being once again being raked up. Now that the discussions between the UPA Government and the IAEA have been completed, the excitement is mounting.

What will the UPA Government do now? Will it dare the left and go ahead with signing the deal, even at the cost of the government? Will the left parties which have threatened to withdraw support, if the Government goes ahead, really stick to their threat? Will Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh's ploy to woo his predecessor, Atal Behari Vajpayee by praising him and appealing to his statesman-like wisdom, get the support of the BJP? Is this the right time for the UPA to go for early elections?

All those raising these questions are just refusing to accept the fact that the UPA Government is not genetically made in a way they think it is. They are also refusing to accept the statements made of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee. For anyone who has watched this Government's functioning closely for the last nearly four years, it is obvious that Mukherjee is not someone who talks out of turn. He made two statements the other day. One that there is no proposal or thinking within the Government and among the UPA allies to go in for early poll. And second, there is no way in which the UPA Government would override the left parties and go ahead with the nuclear deal, unless it is able to convince them.

Obviously these two definitive statements are not enough to convince the prophets of nuclear deal. The questions simply does not go away, and the atmosphere of uncertainty prevails, as TV channels and newspapers, are full of opinion polls about what will happen next. This juvenile exercise, which incidentally makes money for the media houses, will ensure that the puerile debate, which does not really deal with the real issues, is kept alive.

What are the real issues? Now that the negotiations with the IAEA is over, and the Government has been able to extract whatever it could, it is now upto them to convince the left parties. It must be recalled that there is a signed declaration between the UPA and left, that the committee formed to look into all the issues related to the deal, has to discuss and come to a conclusion. Unless and until this committee comes out with a conclusion that the negotiations with the IAEA is satisfactory and that the concerns being expressed by them as well as many independent experts about the dangers of the Hyde act and its scope, Government has promised it wont go ahead.

Now by raising issues about Government going ahead, those proposing it, are in fact wanting the Government to break its own promise to its supporting partner.

Obviously the intention behind this lobby, which is desperately trying to get the Government to seal the deal, is increasingly suspect. Do they want the UPA Government to ignore the Parliamentary majority, which is against the deal in the present form, and go ahead? Is being in the good books of the Americans, more important than our own democratic process?

It must be recalled that Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh himself a couple of months back had made it clear that if he is not able to carry his partners, he would rather give up the deal. However he also went on to add in true democratic tradition that he and his Government would continue the dialogue with partners as well as opposition parties to convince them. And in pursuance of this democratic approach he has been appealing to all concerned.

It might also be recalled that before India approached the IAEA, there was opposition from the left parties to even going to the IAEA. But after a lot of hard bargaining and convincing in the UPA-Left committee, the Government managed to get the nod from the left parties. However the condition on which it was got was that the Government will come back to the Committee, with the draft of the agreement with the IAEA. That stage has been reached now. In a couple of days the committee is expected to meet.

Now going by the mood and public statements of the left parties as well as the BJP, the task of Dr.Manmohan Singh as well its key interlocutor, Pranab Mukherjee is not going to be easy. The fundamental doubts about the 123 agreement and more specifically the Hyde Act, remains. All the issues about our right to test, which they feel is curtailed by the US, remains. The UPA Government however is yet to open its cards about what it has managed to negotiate with the IAEA, and how many concessions it has managed to extract. It remains to be seen if these concessions are good enough for the left parties and the BJP to tone down their opposition.

Meanwhile, the pressure is being applied by the United States, through its senators and even the media, which is completely inclined towards it, to go ahead and conclude the deal. It is curious that even the democrats who are dead opposed to President George Bush are also backing him in this. It is therefore clearly evident that this pressure is not with the aim to help President Bush win some brownie points for himself, and help John McCain's next Presidential campaign.

The reason for this non-partisan pressure from the Americans is due to the enormous influence and clout the nuclear commerce lobby there enjoys across party and political divide. By conservative estimate, if the deal comes through, it will open up commerce for this lobby to the tune of Rs.40, 000 crore. And it is this prospect, which is behind all the pressures. Is it not prudent therefore for us to wait for the democratic process in our own country to take a view on the basis of our national interest? Would it be the end of the world, if our process disapproves of the deal, and waits for the next opportunity?

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