Advani swerves towards a harder anti-Cong line | Kamlendra Kanwar

Published on 08-02-2008 In National

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Advani swerves towards a harder anti-Cong line

After his anointment as BJP's prime minister-in-waiting, L.K. Advani has given early indications that he would be hawkish in his dealings with the Congress though the compulsions of coalition politics may keep him off aggressive Hindutva.

His address to the party's national executive in New Delhi was distinguishable from the Vajpayee era insofar as he revived the foreign origin issue against Congress president Sonia Gandhi and took on the Left, accusing it of 'Kremlinisation of politics' (a reference to the ideological reliance of the Left on Russia).

Cautioning the people that the Congress was a willing tool in the Left's hands he went a step further by saying that the foreign forces "know today's Congress party can be manipulated to such an extent that it can even be made to agree to something as dangerous as communal census in the Indian armed forces, religion-based reservations and fraudulent mass scale conversions by defaming Hinduism."

During Vajpayee's time, Advani's hardline approach on issues was balanced by the former's more temperate and diplomatic stance. Now, however, Advani has a clear field with no one to exercise a moderating influence The party is banking on him because it was he who raised the Ram Mandir issue to a fever pitch which contributed largely to catapulting the BJP to power after the depth it had hit when it slumped to a mere two seats in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections.

The party morale is doubtlessly high with impressive victories in assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal months after riding to power in Uttaranchal and in Punjab with the Akali Dal as senior partner. With elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi due this year the Advani line would be on test.

At the national council meeting Advani shrewdly positioned himself against Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's standpoint that the impoverished Muslims must have first claim over national resources, by asserting that the first right should be of the poorest of the poor and if any community had a claim it was the Dalits and Scheduled Tribes. The implication was that if the Congress played partisan politics to attract minority votes, he would play the Dalit and SC/ST card to woo the legion of Hindu poor voters.

But the BJP and Advani would need to tread warily because some of the allied parties would be loathe to alienating the Muslim voters. The BJP itself has a very small share in the total Muslim vote but parties like the Janata Dal (U) and even the Biju Janata Dal can ill afford to ignore the Muslim vote completely.

The estrangement of the Telugu Desam of Chandrababu Naidu and of Mamata Chaudhary's Trinamool Congress from the BJP was clearly due to its too close an association with an anti-minority stance. The reason they stayed aligned with the BJP even for the time they did was due to the liberal, elder statesman image of Vajpayee.

Even AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa, who is gravitating towards the BJP, cannot be too happy about any strategy that alienates the minorities. That is why aggressive Hindutva could be bad politics for the BJP if it is to have a chance of returning at the head of a coalition. However, standing together with one who is opposing Congress appeasement of minorities could still pass muster if the BJP treads with care. That is precisely what Advani is setting out to do, but the dividing line between prudent opposition to the appeasement by the Congress and to anti-minorityism is a thin one.

There can be little doubt that not only will the BJP need to keep its present allies in good humour but it would also need to look out for fresh alignments if it is to have a reasonable chance to displace the Manmohan Singh government. Advani indeed has a tough task ahead considering that he is not as diplomatic as Vajpayee was and is scarcely able to hide his dislike of certain people.

Much importance is being attached to the outcome of the elections in states going to polls this year. While this may be indicative of the shape of things to come in the 2009 elections, it cannot be a conclusive index considering that state elections are largely fought on local issues.

If the BJP is hoping to ward off anti-incumbency, it would have to do much more than it is doing especially in Madhya Pradesh where it is in the dock for non-performance and corruption and Rajasthan where Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje faces stiff opposition from rival factions in the party and caste groups like the Gujjars. If Gujarat went the BJP's way, a large part of the credit must go to good governance. The same cannot be said of M.P. and Rajasthan. If byelections are anything to go by, the BJP was down in the dumps in Chhattisgarh last year but it regained some ground later in the year.

Karnataka, where the BJP is locked in battle with the Congress and the Janata Dal (S) of Deve Gowda offers it hope because it was a victim of deceit by the JD (S), which it is exploiting, but uncertainties abound. Whatever it is, there can be little doubt that this acid test for Advani and the BJP would be no cakewalk.

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