| Published on 30-12-2007 In National |
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| Lessons for the New Year from Gujarat and Himachal |
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Written by
Nilotpal Basu |
Looking back at the year that has been to anticipate how the New Year will play out so far as the political process is concerned, one is struck by certain similarities with the past. The elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and their results in the fag end of 2007 stand out as significant pointers.
Predictably, the BJP national leadership is ecstatic. The newly anointed Prime Ministerial probable, Advani, is particularly upbeat. Advani has portrayed the Gujarat verdict as "a turning point in national politics because it signals the BJP's come back as the front-runner in the next parliamentary elections". Former national president of the BJP Venkaiah Naidu says, the election results signify BJP's triumph in the quarterfinals – implicitly comparing the next general elections to the finals where BJP will be the ultimate victor.
Gujarat is significant. But before going into that, Himachal Pradesh appears to be replicating the oscillation in the now so familiar Congress-BJP pendulum towards the BJP. This is a feature of all those states, which are essentially characterised by a bipolar polity. Why is it so?
The policy paradigm, which informs governance of such states, is strikingly similar. They are anchored in neo-liberal roots, which are increasingly perceived by the poor as biased towards the rich. They tend to further marginalize the have-nots. Any collective protest over such policies is dealt with ruthlessly and with vengeance. `Shining India' encapsulated the various strands of these phenomena. The on-going process of sharpening inequalities with rapid proliferation in the number of millionaires and billionaires, on the one hand, and unabated im-miserisation of the poor with the symptomatic suicides of the farmers bears this out. It is the aam aadmi, which speaks out through his ballot, and whosoever is the incumbent is at the receiving end of his ire.
No doubt, this gives a clue to what might happen in all those states which are at the moment having BJP-led governments – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. It is precisely what had happened in the run-up to the 2004 general elections. In their present mood of euphoria, the BJP leaders appear to be oblivious about the far more significant reverses that they have suffered in Uttar Pradesh during the course of the year and which was particularly important for BJP's fortune in the final outcome of the next general elections.
Gujarat has beaten this familiar pattern of anti-incumbency. Narendra Modi is the `man of the match' as some of the BJP leaders have pointed out. A myth was systematically created in the run-up to the Gujarat elections. The traditional saffron crowd – the RSS and the VHP in Gujarat, is opposing Modi. By default, it was sought to be established that Modi has distanced himself from the Hindutva plank, which he had authored during the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom.
A carefully orchestrated campaign was cultivated to establish that Modi is now a harbinger of development – not destruction. The media, particularly the electronic variety, put flesh to this campaign. Modi's fight against the disgruntled old guard led by the likes of Keshubhai Patel, Suresh Mehta and Kashiram Rana were blown out of proportions. This also induced the Congress leadership into believing that their disenchantment with Modi will automatically convert into electoral gains for the Congress, so much so, that even some of the active participants of the Gujarat carnage became Congress candidates either directly or indirectly.
That Modi had done nothing to reverse the atmosphere of terror in the aftermath of the pogrom was all but forgotten. The sense of terror, which prevailed, did not facilitate justice for those victims. It merely pushed the overt and palpable expressions of domination under the carpet forcing the hapless Muslim minority to accept a situation of almost fatalistic resignation. The sustained and patient campaign to reverse the situation and ensure delivery of justice was a challenge that faced the secular forces. The Congress being the principal secular force in Gujarat was burdened with this task. But not only did they fail to prove equal but even for the minimum – the speeding up the process of justice in cases for which petitions were lying in the Supreme Court – precious little was done. Implicitly, there was an acceptance of the Modi argument that any reference to the past will only further polarise Gujarat.
Certain comments by Sonia Gandhi were an exception to this approach. But this was too little and too late. This was also not backed by a continued effort on the ground.
The other aspect, which needs to be underlined, was the failure to link the battle against communalism with the mobilisation of the people who were victims of the pro-rich policies that the Modi government followed. The extent, to which the forces of Hindutva have treated Gujarat as a laboratory of their venomous activities, makes it amply clear that the BJP cannot be defeated merely through an electoral campaign. Unless the sustained and interlinked campaign and mobilisation takes place, the BJP led by Modi in Gujarat cannot be unseated.
The proof of this can be found out from the results of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and those in the central Gujarat region in this election. The commentators who are going gung-ho over the portrayal of Modi as a harbinger of a new paradigm of development have not explained these results. If their analytical wisdom is so all-pervasive then central Gujarat where the poor and the tribals have voted for Congress must also be explained. This is the lesson of Gujarat. Hopefully, the leadership of the Congress and the UPA who matter in Delhi are listening. |
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