| Published on 24-12-2007 In National | | Viewed 1549 times | | Modi Keeps Gujarat, and away from Gandhi |
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| Written by
Girish Nikam | 
About two months back, after Tehelka had exposed the perpetrators of the 2002 Gujarat Carnage in a rather stark manner, this column had asked the question--- Will Gandhiji's Gujarat still want to stand by Modi? It has today decided not only to stand by Narendra Modi but has given him an overwhelming majority, which most of the BJP leaders themselves had doubted. This verdict once again underlines the fact how far away Gujarat has moved away from Gandhiji.
What is the most significant message from this verdict? It is the continuing success of the Hindutva experiment and how dividing people on communal lines help electorally. And the other significant message is that in Gujarat the BJP does not matter. What matters is Modi and Modi alone. And that should be a warning signal to the BJP leadership.
The second message was proved by the fact that the rebels led by Keshubhai Patel failed miserably, and the Congress gambit of depending on them to defeat Modi backfired very badly. So badly that in Saurashtra, considered the Patel bastion, and Kutch where they were expected to improve their tally, the Congress lost 13 of its seats, which it had won in 2002. Saurashtra, therefore which was to be Modi's waterloo, in fact turned into a Congress' and the BJP rebels' waterloo. The BJP rebels will now be history. And Modi is now the unquestioned leader of Gujarat and even outside. No one in his party will dare to take him on for some time to come.
This verdict will reinforce his feelings that there is no need to apologise or express regret for what happened in 2002. And that would only mean bad news for the victims of the carnage, many of who are languishing in camps and some even in jails, and whose families are trying hard to get on with life. It would mean that the human rights activists in and outside Gujarat fighting for their cause would have a tougher time ahead.
So was this election won on the "development agenda", as Modi and BJP are claiming? It would certainly be inapt to say that development was not at the back of the mind of the people who have voted for Modi, especially those who have benefited from the skyrocketing stock markets and the entire corresponding trickle down benefits to that section of the society. But to say development won the day for Modi would be incorrect. For anyone who travelled in Gujarat in the last couple of weeks and interacted with people, it was obvious that most of the people who were plugging for Modi, were using development as a cover, to hide their real motive---- the anti-muslim feeling and the need to vote Modi to keep the muslims "under control".
One of the earliest sms one got when the results started showing a Modi sweep said it all----"jeet gaya Gujarat, prabawi hai Hindutva ka raj "! There was no confusion in the minds of the voters who voted for Modi, why they were voting for him. In fact a Muslim bank employee in Central Gujarat had even expressed this fear, when he spoke about the determination of the Muslims to vote in large numbers.
"We know if we three of us vote, they will make sure six will vote for Modi".
And as he predicted the consolidation happened helped largely by the pitch Modi had queered in the second half of the campaign, focusing on communal issues.
No wonder Congress found itself floundering, as it was unable to counter this campaign, try as much as Sonia Gandhi did. The problem for the Congress was it ran two campaigns--- one by the State leaders who did not want to take up the communal issue and tried a soft Hindutva option, even as Sonia Gandhi increased her tempo and tried to take Modi head on, on the communal issue. Obviously it left them at the end of the day standing between two stools.
The saving grace for the Congress is that it has made significant gains in the tribal belt of Central Gujarat, which ultimately resulted in reasonably decent numbers. It also means that the tribals, who had moved away from BJP in this belt in the 2004 lok Sabha election, after having been the Modi and VHP foot soldiers in the 2002 carnage, remained away from him by and large. No wonder Modi lost 21 seats in this region compared to 2002. But it was the status quo virtually in South Gujarat for Congress and its inability to improve in North Gujarat, and miserable performance in Saurashtra, which has resulted in what it faces today.
So is Gujarat now lost forever to Congress? Though the results are certainly demoralizing and will take some time for them to digest and recover, the fact remains that it has nothing to despair. It has gained votes, almost four percent from 2002 and about 1.5 percent from 2004. It means that Gujarat as it proved in 2004, can still vote differently in a lok Sabha election. But will Congress have the guts to take Modi head on, when it comes to communal issues? That will determine its ability to dent the Modi march.
However, this result is bound to charge the BJP cadres even outside Gujarat and will have its impact in the forthcoming elections to the Karnataka assembly in the next few months. But whether the local BJP will be able to take advantage of it, is a question, which still begs an answer.
The euphoria generated by the Gujarat verdict is bound to make many BJP supporters around the country even think of the party's march back to power at the Centre, as Advani has already predicted. One however needs to remember that in this country, every year brings with it, a new high and a new low for the two major parties---Congress and BJP. While this year it may be a low for the Congress, following this verdict, in the next ten months the prospect of the results in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chattisgarh, may well be the BJP's turn to hide behind closed doors.
Gujarat however has sounded a warning note to all the secular parties, which had become complacent in the recent past, that the war is still on and there cannot be a let up on fighting this ideological battle, if they have to bring Gujarat back to Gandhi. |
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