Gujarat 2007 is not 2002 and there hangs a tale | Girish Nikam

Published on 17-12-2007 In National

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Gujarat 2007 is not 2002 and there hangs a tale

When one landed in Gujarat to cover the elections some days back, one was apprehensive. The apprehension was based on previous experience. Having traveled and covered the elections in the Post-Godhra 2002, the feeling was natural. One wondered whether the communal poison which had been deeply imbibed by the people of Gujarat then. still continued to run in their veins. Had the five years of Narendra Modi made it only worse or has it abated? These were some of the questions one asked oneself after landing in the Ahmedabad airport.

Having returned after a nine-day tour, one can say with certainty the feeling today is different then what it was five years ago. In fact in that winter of 2002, it had taken over a week to get over what seemed like a deep depression, caused by what one got to see and hear, and the way the entire State seemed to be going. One even heard comments like "what a great fun it was", with reference to the Post-Godhra carnage in which thousands of Muslims had been killed, and how I "had missed the fun" for not being there when it happened. It seemed like the State was lost for quite some time to come, in many ways, not least on the communal front.

All these apprehensions one held, however at the end of nine days now, seems misplaced. Gujarat of 2007 has come a long way since 2002. Though in the urban areas, the communal poison sown in 2002 continues to run in the people's veins, things have changed quite a lot in the rural and semi-rural areas.

As far as a lot of people (read hindus and a small percentage of even muslim youths) in the urban areas are concerned, Modi has emerged as a cult figure, who has put the State on a path of massive development, which is benefiting all of them. As far as these people are concerned, the post-Godhra riots, the effect it continues to have on the muslim psyche, their sufferings, the clear cut division in the society on communal lines, are all just a bad dream, which is not worth even remembering. According to them, it is not worth recalling and spoiling their mood, especially amidst all the "development" that has happened. For them, the return of Modi is crucial, as they think it would ensure that this march towards "development" will continue and they will all benefit further.

On the other hand, and this is what one meant, when one talks of 2007 being different from 2002, there is an equally large section of people in the rural and semi-rural areas, and to a lesser extent even in urban areas, who have had enough of the communal tensions and the division in the society. Those in the rural and semi-rural areas, especially the tribals and the scheduled castes, to a great extent have realised that they had become pawns in the hands of the Hindutva forces. And they are no more willing to be played around with. They also have this strong feeling that the fruits of "development" which Modi talks about have not reached them. They also realise that the division in the society has hurt them both, socially and economically, and it is time the wounds are healed, and they co-exist peacefully.

The election 2007 therefore has become a more even battle. Congress, which had been completely demoralized and was running around like "headless chickens" in 2002, has got its act together, as it finds increasing support among the people, especially in the rural and semi-rural areas. There is virtually no district in the State, where one does not hear the refrain, "it is anybody's game", from ordinary voters. Even the staunch Modi acolytes, who had predicted about 120 seats (out of the total 182) when the campaign began, now talk of "making it to 100 seats".

The NGOs and ordinary citizens in urban as well as rural areas have now found a voice and have put in enormous efforts to bring about harmony in the society, despite facing huge odds and a hostile government. The healing touch they have been able to administer is visible, though more in the rural then urban areas.

In fact all this has resulted in Congress even talking of winning the election, which sometime back would have sounded completely absurd. Now it does not anymore. The simple reason for this is that they had made up on a lot of lost ground, not in the last few months, but since 2004 itself. Somehow it has escaped many people's attention that in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, Congress had actually won in a majority of the Assembly segments. In fact it had lead over the BJP in 94 of the 182 seats, including mind you in the Godhra and Gandhinagar segments. And then the Keshubhai factor in Saurashtra was not so strong, or the Congress party itself was not so well organised as it is now.

Of course, the Assembly election is different from a Lok Sabha one, many argue and they are right. Here the stakes for Modi is so much more than it was in 2004. It has also given him time to show some "development" on the ground, to prove his claim that his concentration is on development. But at the same time, the lack of action when it comes to the carnage victims, both in terms of rehabilitation and judicial, has alienated more people, especially in the rural areas. In 2004, Modi had the support of VHP and the Bajrang Dal, and now he does not, to a large extent. Congress of course, suffers from a handicap—a State leader who can match Modi's charisma. But that is largely again an urban concern, whereas in the rural areas, the battle is largely perceived as between Modi and Sonia.

And again another factor going in Congress' favour is the fact that the muslims who had been terrorized into staying at home in 2002, are all geared up to vote in large numbers, and majority of them have no confusion as to who they are going to vote for.

The Battle for Gujarat has therefore become the most interesting battle in recent times. But what is more important regardless of the result is that the phase of Modi domination as far as Gujarat is concerned, is on the wane. After having seen the worst of times, Gujarat can now only see a better future. Meanwhile, win or lose, Modi will soon have to realise, like his party at the Centre did some time back, that communal politics has a limited utility.

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