A few days back when Narendra Modi reverted to his tested and proven campaign model of evoking the hindutva sentiments by reminding people about Godhra, Sohrabuddin and Afzal Guru, one wondered why he was doing it considering his record of work--- excellent road network, impressive power situation and good water supply.

Travelling through parts of North Gujarat and the predominantly tribal belt of Central Gujarat in the last two days, one realises why he did it. Panchmahal, Dahod, and Vadodara districts which forms key part of the tribal belt in Central Gujarat with 26 of the 50 seats, is where the BJP had swept in 2002, winning all the 26 seats. It was this region which had suffered some of the worst communal carnage post-Godhra, and the perpetrators were largely the tribals, who had recently converted to the hindutva cause.

As one went through the other parts of Gujarat, one was given the impression that Central and North Gujarat is Modi's stronghold and all the losses in Saurashtra which he is expected to suffer, will be compensated in his fortress, Central Gujarat.

Travelling through these regions however does not evoke such an impression anymore. And surely Modi must have realised the thin ice that he is skating on in this region, much before others did. And so his efforts to shift the focus from development to the emotive issues of hindutva, and subtle warnings about Muslim domination if Congress is voted to power.

In fact, the warning signals for Modi from this region had come as far back as 2004, when in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had performed incredibly well. After having got just 8 out of the 50 seats in Central Gujarat (excluding the 12 seats of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar) in 2002 Assembly election, the Congress had jumped to an astonishing 32, with BJP under Modi's Chief Ministership, slumping to just 18.

Of course it was a Lok Sabha election and the issues were different and Modi's personal stakes were far less than what it is now. It however gave a glimpse of the fact that the stranglehold over the tribals which Modi and the BJP had established through the VHP's vanvasi kalyan kendras was slipping.

The question that is key to the results in this region on Dec.23 is, whether Modi has been able to re-establish his hold over this region, even if not as strongly in 2002. It seems doubtful. "We have realised that he made a fool of us for his own political benefit", a group of people in a rather remote forest area in Sakthala in Devgarh Bariya constituency in Panchmahal district, echoed very forcefully. Gathered in the small village square in the dark, they were initially suspicious of this writer, and once the credentials were established, there was no stopping them.

One has never heard the kind of language and bad mouthing against Modi in any other region of Gujarat, as one heard from this mix of tribals and some backward community people.

Even as the urban and semi-urban and town folks showed their strong inclination to Modi, the Muslims across the region are bracing up for the polling day to vote in large numbers. Ayaz, a steel businessman in Daboi, however is aware of the dangers of this determination of his community to turn out in large numbers to vote out Modi. "If we cast three votes, we know they (hindus) will try to cast six votes". And this is exactly what Modi is hoping would happen.

The tribals and the rural poor however seem to be unfazed by the last minute Modi blitz to evoke their hindutva passions. It is also interesting how Modi's acolytes have been trying to convince these people to forget the past and continue to have faith in Modi. A Lawyer in Choteudepur, a BJP member, had this rather interesting argument. "Well, these tribals were indeed lured and forced into attacking Muslims. But who did it? Not Modi. It was the VHP people. That is why he has kept them out and not allowed them to campaign also. He has taken action against them too".

Will such explanations work or will Congress be able to hold to its lead which it had established in 2004. If it does, it is anybody's election, and no wonder Modi is on tenterhooks.