| Published on 11-12-2007 In National | | Viewed 1409 times | | Saurashtra, Rebel Factor and Modi's Problems |
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| Written by
Girish Nikam | 
*"Vote the dictator out" screams the headlines in a local Gujarati eveninger published from Rajkot, which covers the Saurashtra region on Monday, a day before the region goes to the polls. The lead story carries a huge picture of Keshubhai Patel, the disgruntled former Chief Minister, whose hatred for Chief Minister Narendra Modi is a public secret.
*An RSS worker attending a "party" hosted by a Congress candidate in Rajkot, in which about 2,000 people participated, tells a journalist---- "I am distressed that I am here---but I will do anything including supporting the Congress, which I hate, to defeat Modi".
Such stories abound in this region about why Saurashtra and Kutch may prove to be a major embarrassment for Modi, who is leaving no stone unturned to combat these challenges. In no other part of Gujarat is he facing the kind of internal sabotage and open revolt as he does in this region. And such an extra-ordinary challenge is being countered by Modi in one manner which he has mastered-----melodrama. Campaigning on the last day, Sunday, in Kutch, he tried to evoke sentiments of the Kutchis by remarking, "I must have been born of a Kutchi mother in my last birth, that's why I feel so much love and affection for you people. I wish I am born in my next birth from a kutchi womb". How far this cheap filmi-style melodrama will help him one wonders. Apart from melodrama he has also changed nearly a dozen sitting MLAs, put different people in charge of the campaign and strategy and left no stone unturned as far as campaign finances are concerned.
Interestingly everyone in this region agree that Modi's five years has seen many developmental works, giving him room for some exaggeration, indeed. For instance his claim of having brought Narmada water to the entire parched region is an exaggeration. It has reached about three districts, and four more are yet to see the water, though work is on at a brisk pace. Power supply has improved vastly and there is hardly anyone who complains about power supply as such.His proximity to Reliance, has resulted in massive investments in the region, especially in Jamnagar.
Ironically however, it is the improvement in power supply, and the subsequent stringent measures to arrest power theft, which has the farmers caught in such acts, turn against him. And one is told they are in large numbers.
The major problem Modi however faces here is however the revolt against him. He is unable to counter it by reviving the communal agenda in this region, as this region had not been affected by Godhra or post-Godhra violence.
The demagogue in him is therefore left whimpering in silence, preferring to counter the revolt with behind the door machinations. In all the innumerable TV interviews he has started giving suddenly after months of silence, one question he does not want to face and if he does, refuses to even open his mouth, is about Keshubhai factor. It was almost hilarious to watch him purse his lips and almost put his hand on his mouth when a national news channel interviewer persisted with the question. It almost looked like he was afraid of opening his mouth and putting his foot into it.
The only issue therefore in this region has turned out to be--- Modi and his style of functioning. Mind you it is not that the entire region is disgusted with it, as the Patels and Kolis, the two communities which have come out openly against him, are. As far as the Patels are concerned, the insult to Keshubhai and his sidelining and Modi's dictatorial ways, as the veteran leader has repeatedly makes it a point to stress, is cause enough to oppose Modi tooth and nail. As far as the Kolis are concerned, rape of a minor girl of the community and lack of police action against the perpetrators, has polarized the community against Modi. I is an excuse alright, but good enough to give Modi a run for his money, in this region.
The Congress which did do too badly even in 2002, has however capitalized on the revolt against Modi and adopted quite a few of them, and in fact some of them have even been part of strategizing and finalizing party's candidates. That should prove fruitful certainly.
Just to put the region's politics in perspective, it is not that Modi was very successful in this region in 2002. In fact from a peak of 53 out of the 58 seats that BJP had won in 1998, when Keshubhai led the party, it had touched 39 in 2002. Mind you even in 2002, Keshubhai was not a happy man, though he and others like Suresh Mehta(who quit BJP a couple of days back) Purushotham Solanki(the koli leader) who are all leading the revolt now, had not openly opposed Modi. They could not have as the Godhra-effect was at its peak. But even then, BJP's tally had come down to 39.
Now with the rebels openly hostile towards him, Modi is all set to suffer further setbacks. "He will lose atleast 8 to 10 seats more", a journalist who has toured the region extensively predicts. The big question however remains. Will the downward trend propelled by the rebel factor in Saurashtra and Kutch be enough to bring Modi down?
The answer to this lies in Central and North Gujarat, where this column will travel in the next three days. Keep reading. |
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