| Published on 11-10-2007 In National |
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Written by
Kamlendra Kanwar |
The Congress' UPA allies were seemingly not a factor in the Indo-US nuclear deal imbroglio until now. So much so that the Congress had started taking them for granted.
All it was concerned about was the posturing of the Left.
Now, things are gradually changing. They are still not willing to stick their necks out and confront the Congress party. But the strong possibility of a snap poll to the Lok Sabha has sent shivers down many a spine.
At Tuesday's meeting of the Left with the UPA constituents over the deadlocked nuclear issue at which Pranab Mukherjee was the Congress torchbearer, both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Sharad Pawar spoke up, cajoling the Congress to try and avert a mid-term poll. DMK supremo Karunanidhi thinks no differently.
Both Lalu and Karunanidhi are realistic enough to realize that there is no way they can repeat their 2004 performance and that a drastic cut in their seats would severely affect their clout in the UPA. They would rather make hay while the sun shines and what could be better than the sun continuing to shine for the entire term of the Lok Sabha.
Pawar's NCP which fought the 2004 polls in alliance with the Congress had managed nine seats in a total of 48 members of Parliament sent from the state. The Congress got 13, and the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance between them managed 25. Pawar reckons that if his tally is lower than nine this time around, he would be seen to be a fading star.
On the contrary, the Congress is buoyed by some recent opinion polls that show that it would improve its tally if elections were to be held within the next few months.
Many Congressmen are fearful that just as the opinion polls had predicted a BJP-led NDA victory, which failed to materialize in 2004, the Congress may have to suffer if it relies overmuch on surveys.
Yet, what matters in today's Congress is what Sonia Gandhi feels and she may well opt for an early poll in anticipation of a clear advantage.
In Bihar where the RJD and its allies had secured an impressive 29 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections of a total of 40 with the RJD getting 22 of those, the tables were turned when the JD (U)-BJP alliance won a comfortable majority in the assembly elections. Lalu Yadav knows only too well that the Nitish Kumar magic is still working on the minds of Bihar voters and that RJD faces a considerable fall in its strength if not a rout if the Lok Sabha elections are held soon. That would severely compromise Lalu's clout in the UPA.
Lalu is counting on Nitish Kumar making a few blunders which he could capitalize on, if the elections are held on schedule. In a snap election there would be no time to make a counter-impact specially when Nitish Kumar would be crying hoarse that the UPA has subverted the country's interest through the nuclear deal.
There can be little doubt that law and order under Nitish has improved, corruption is less and development goals are being pursued with greater vigour.
In Tamil Nadu, the Karunanidhi government is fast losing its sheen. With Jayalalithaa breathing down his neck, the aging Karunanidhi must now be ruing the fact that he has not built up a second line in his party. His heir-apparent and son Stalin has not displayed the qualities that would reassure his father that the party would be safe in his hands. Karunanidhi's elder son Azhagiri whom he had persuaded into staying away from Chennai while having a free run in Madurai could well pose problems for Stalin once Karunanidhi is no longer in the saddle.
Karunanidhi's grandnephew Dayanidhi Maran is smarting under the rebuff given to him and is waiting for an opportunity to strike back. Dayanidhi is no match for Karunanidhi but he could well pose problems for Stalin with his tremendous money power, having built up Sun TV into a formidable outfit along with his brother Kalanidhi during times when he had the blessings of his granduncle. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK-led alliance had made a clean sweep, winning all the 39 seats. This time around, there is no doubt that Jayalalithaa's AIADMK will take a fairly big slice.
Karunanidhi realizes in his heart of hearts that hisrecent involvement in controversies over the existence of Lord Rama and the Supreme Court's anger over the `virtual bandh' in Tamil Nadu even after the court had explicitly told the party the previous day not to paralyze life through a bandh, have contributed to queering the pitch for the DMK-led alliance in the state.
For their own reasons, therefore the state satraps of the UPA are loathe to being forced into a snap election.
The manner in which UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi called those parties opposed to the Indo-US deal as anti-development at a rally in Haryana has not gone down well with the allies who see in it an attempt to force a snap election without taking responsibility for precipitating it. The Left too has been left perplexed and angry by the tone of her attack. While she has later denied that she was referring to the Left, it is quite clear that it was the Left that was her target.
All said and done, it is the Congress that would decide the timing of the next elections and as things stand, it is gung ho about an early election. How far the UPA allies go to cajole her into averting a snap poll remains to be seen. |
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