| Published on 03-09-2007 In National | | Viewed 1480 times | | Will Manmohan Singh "Stay the course" ? |
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| Written by
Girish Nikam | 
Addressing the first and so far the last full fledged press conference addressed in Delhi, on Sept.4, 2004, after completing 100 days in office, Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh was asked, what has been the lesson he had learnt during his stint as Finance Minister between 1991 and 1996, when he was faced with stiff opposition from all quarters, not the least from his own party, when he pursued the economic reforms. The answer to this question was " the importance of staying the course. Looking back look at all those who were bitter critics then, not only supporting it now but also wanting more".
Dr.Manmohan Singh is confronted with a similar situation today as in 1991-96, as the Indo-US strategic partnership of which the nuclear deal is a key element, faces serious and strong criticisms and opposition. If there is one thing, which Dr.Singh would like to leave behind for posterity to judge him, at this point of time, it is this strategic agreement he takes credit of having worked out.
Going back a little, one has to understand that Dr.Singh had admitted as he went through the economic reforms process as the Finance Minister under P.V.Narasimha Rao that he indeed had many things to learn. In the late nineties and early part of this decade, he even admitted that some of the steps they had taken in the early and mid-nineties towards economic reforms had to be re-worked and fine-tuned to suit the needs of India. But when he replied as quoted above, about "staying the course", he was clear in his mind that certain policies with far-reaching changes, which has the potential to change the status quo, cannot be implemented easily. So one has to "stay the course" and fight it out with conviction, he had said.
Now the question upper-most in the minds of the people is will he be able to "stay the course" and take the Indo-US deal to its logical conclusion? There have been rumours in the past three and half years, atleast a couple of times with good reason, that Dr.Singh had indeed offered to resign. Insiders say that it was a tactic he had used to shut up his detractors both within the party and outside. Those who have known him closely say that he is not a man who will give up so easily.
Let me quote him again from the same press conference mentioned above. Asked that there was a belief that he may give up if pushed to the wall, he had replied, " I believe our Government will last the full five years, and let there be no doubt or ambiguity, about this. Therefore, this misconception that I can be pressurized into giving up is simply not going to materialize"
It is nearly three years ago that he had said this. Now he is probably facing his biggest challenge from the left parties as well as from the BJP, not to say some silent detractors from within the Congress. So will he "stay the course"?
The immediate challenge he faces is to convince the left parties and the allies in the committee to be set up to clarify on the apprehensions raised about the agreement, about the importance of the deal, and how it does not harm the interest of the country.
His first reaction soon after the 123 agreement was finalised last month was that everyone better accept it. And then he had even gone on to dare the left to withdraw support.
However, now by accepting the committee, he has decided to make a tactical retreat. It is upto him now to explain and allay apprehensions of the left parties that this deal will not affect the sovereignty of the country, be it on the nuclear, both military and civilian, as well as on the strategic front. One of the apprehensions of the left parties, expressed by others too, is about India becoming a vassal state of the Americans militarily. The joint exercises with the US on Indian territory has understandably raised the hackles of many about an anti-China-Russia grouping emerging in Asia with Americans at the helm.
The other major concern expressed about is about the need for expanding nuclear power itself. Studies have indicated that the effort and cost of expanding the nuclear power generation from present 4,000 odd mw to 20,000 mw by 2020, is far too much, and that we can instead concentrate on other forms of power like Hydro-electric and other non-conventional forms like bio-gas, solar and wind power, at a much lower cost. For instance in Arunachal Pradesh alone, according to State Government study, 70,000 MW of hydro-electric power can be generated, while presently only about 400 mw is being generated.
There are various energy experts writing everywhere about the comparative advantages of other forms of power compared to nuclear energy. Dr.Singh will have to convincingly explain why these experts are wrong and he is right.
The other major opposition to the deal is how the entire 123 agreement will fall by the wayside, if India is going have another nuclear explosion. Both left parties and BJP sound completely hypocritical while raising this issue. Left parties because they had opposed the Pokhran I and II, while BJP, which tested Pokhran II, had committed this country to voluntary moratorium on further testing.
Be that as it may, what Dr.Singh will have to convince the opponents is whether India needs to test again at all? In any case, there is of course a clause in 123 agreement that even if India tests in reaction to others in the neighbourhood (read Pakistan and China) going ahead with a test, there will not be automatic sanctions imposed nor will the 123 agreement fall automatically. Singh will have to drive this home, and hope that it would satisfy the opponents.
But even as he does this convincing and clarifications he has to remember to control his pride and ego and switch back to his Finance Minister days when he faced similar storms and weathered them. Only then will he able to "stay the course". |
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